You have read it in black and white: the economy is improving: Factories are hiring. Adding 200,000 jobs in December cut the unemployment rate to 8.5 percent. Consumer confidence is rising, and cars are selling again.

Meanwhile, corporate profits hit a record $2-trillion a year, and since the cataclysm in 2008, real gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services, has grown for more than two years.

These economic measures are broad, ubiquitous and reliable, but there are other ways to measure the economy. If you poke around, you’ll find economists — on Wall Street and Elm Street alike — with their own idiosyncratic economic indicators.

Like the GDP and unemployment rate, many are less forecasting tools than measures of the current economy. That may diminish their prognostic value, but not their human-humorous-interest value.

To stay or to vacate?

Vacations, however necessary, can be expensive, and so when the economy tanked in 2008, we began to hear about the cost-cutting “staycation.” By taking time off from work (assuming we had a job…) without leaving home, we could enjoy friends, family and local attractions: parks, museums, lakes and beaches.

We could, in other words, enjoy many of the benefits of a vacation while ducking the hefty price tag. Staycations can have pizazz: would you rather be taking off your shoes in a frenetic airport or building a tree house with the kids?

We failed to find anybody who studies staycations, so the best we can say about their merit as economic indicators is that past performance is no guarantee of future success; read the full prospectus before investing!

Vacant at home

It doesn’t take a Rhodes scholar to deduce from foreclosure stats or photos of abandoned houses that housing remains a black hole in the American economy. But like the staycation, a foreclosure boom follows a sour economy, and is more informative about the immediate past than about the immediate future.

We were, however, intrigued to learn that foreclosure could be a disease vector. Clouds of mosquitoes are breeding in abandoned ponds and swimming pools at foreclosed homes in Arizona.

That gives us another reason to hate skeeters, even if their whine is the sound of love.

Sports: No rush to the finish line

Pro-sport tickets are not cheap, so a full stadium must signify a healthy economy. But it ain’t necessarily so, says Andrew Billings, who studies broadcasting and sports at the University of Alabama. “People often get a flawed picture from simply going by attendance figures. It depends on the sport.”

In the National Football League, he notes, “the majority of stadiums sell out, and demand far exceeds supply.” Before a sick economy leads to empty seats, he says, it deflates ticket prices on resale markets, “but you will still see a full stadium, and may think the economy must not be too bad, even if the demand is cut in half.”

And don’t bother counting duffers at a private golf course, either, Billings says. A full golf course “is not always a straight-off indicator of prosperity,” because the major expense is the cost of membership. “For many people, once they have bought the membership, the costs are sunk, and golf becomes the cheap option for entertainment.”

When money is tight, he says, “They may be playing twice as frequently because it’s already paid for.”

Big screen, big sales, bogus economic indicator?

You might think sales of pricy electronic goods, including those “mine-is-bigger-than-yours” TVs, would closely track prosperity, but Billings says they “may be another misleading measure.”

Many of those giant video screens, more suited to aircraft hangers than living rooms, are bought to watch sports, and looking at the full economic picture reveals the folly of the sales = prosperity equation, he says.

Consider the cost of season tickets for big-league sports — up to $20,000 for a seat behind home plate at the New York Yankees. When times get bad, Billings says, “The buyer may think, ‘Why don’t I get a $2,000 TV and the major-league baseball package? Once you add in parking and food, sports can be very expensive, and that makes the flat screen look pretty cheap.”

Although another flat-screen sale may contribute to the image of prosperity, Billings says, this fan “has really cut their budget to avoid going to the stadium.”

Pretty Byzantine?

How do we get a measure of economic activity in the long, dark epoch before the invention of the GDP or the flat-screen television? In the 14th century, during the death throes of the Byzantine empire, the church was an economic engine and a wealth center. If you bought a marriage license, you paid the church, which also owned buildings, even entire communities.

Because churches hold some of the best documents from the period, some scholars have proposed using records of church wealth as a proxy for economic development — or decline — during this benighted epoch before the spreadsheet was envisioned.

Garbage everywhere

With the possible exception of unwrapped broccoli from a local farm, everything you buy creates garbage, and the garbage disposal system is always affected by economic slowdowns.

Duh.

But we were surprised to hear that garbage can offer almost a real-time economic readout. According to Edward Humes, author of the forthcoming book Garbology: Our Dirty Love Affair with Trash, “Until the housing bubble burst, the largest landfill in the country, by intake, was Puente Hills in Los Angeles County, which was taking up to the legal limit, 13,000 tons per day. This was cut in half after the housing bubble burst. Home construction and demolition debris fell as construction stopped, and people started buying less stuff.”

Construction fell so quickly, Humes says, that “Landfill operators probably saw [bad economic] things coming ahead of a lot of the rest of us.”

Even “durable goods” can quickly start bulking up the garbage stream, he says. “So much of what we buy is pretty ephemeral, even the stuff defined as durable goods must last just one year. A lot of it is designed to be thrown away; not fixed. The age of the TV repairman is long behind us.”

Garbage tells us about more than just economics, Humes adds. “It’s a little scary, one of our greatest exports is trash. We used to make things, and now we make trash.”

Although high garbage flows correlate to prosperity, Humes says the linkage cannot last forever. “Every culture figures out” that wasting resources is not a long-term solution, he says. “Suddenly, when resources are scarce, humans get more conscious of how much they have wasted, but by then it’s too late.”

Night lights, big city

Can lights at night, as seen from space, measure a region’s economy? After all, lighting requires bulbs, generators, energy and wires, so the argument has face validity. But a 2011 study returned mixed results. Night lights were a useful gauge in 25 percent to 33 percent of counties in the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). In India, night lights gave a useful picture of local GDP in a “very small number” of districts.

And in China, fewer than 10 percent of districts showed a significant correlation between night lights and GDP. One reason: light from the intense coastal urbanization overwhelmed the satellite’s sensors and could not be measured accurately.

Underwater underwear

Alan Greenspan, who ran the Federal Reserve for oh-so-many years, was said to favor sales of men’s underwear as an economic indicator. His theory: When times get tight, men decide to forgo the pleasure of a new pair of briefs or boxers.

We were unable to unearth evidence for this notion, but wish to ask two follow-up questions: Do sales of women’s underwear convey an economic message? And how do you know?

Stick with lipstick?

If men can withstand the urge to buy boxers and briefs, women apparently can’t cut back on “small indulgences” like lipstick. In 2001, the chair of Estee Lauder coined “lipstick index” to explain why lipstick sales rise during a bad economy.

Going to war

For some, the military is a job of last resort, and so the number and quality of new recruits offers a proxy for economic conditions.

But military recruiting ads may be just as telling as the numbers. In 2009, the New York Times described a new Marines ad showing “men crawling through mud and under barbed wire, being smacked in the head with padded fighting sticks, vomiting after inhaling tear gas and diving, boots and all, into a swimming pool.”

With so many potential recruits in the job market, the ad didn’t bother soft-selling the rigors of Marine life.

Recouping the coupons

When pressed for coins, why not cash in on those coupons that clutter mailboxes and newspapers? In hard times, coupon redemptions do rise, according to a company that processes them.

Skirting the economic reality?

If we can believe QI, a quiz show from the United Kingdom, long hair and short skirts are both signs of prosperity. Hey, we tried, but failed, to track this revelation back to a legit study, but still give thanks to reader “St Ga” for the suggestion, and for an elegant mix-mastering of cause and effect: “If the government makes short skirts & long hair compulsory for EVERYONE will the economy improve? :)”

We wish.

We guess you could call that a failure, but Diana Nyad’s 29-hour quest to swim from Cuba to Florida was called on account of shoulder pain, waves and asthma. But no matter how disappointed Nyad may have been, we’re impressed.

Jolted by the thought that a 61-year old would jump into the ocean to embark on a 103-mile swim, we looked around and saw a mushrooming number of insanely hard runs, swims, triathlons and bike rides — and spotted a trend.

In running, ultra-endurance events are defined as longer than the 26-mile marathon. In cycling, longer than the 100-mile century. There’s no set definition in swimming, so far as we can tell, but Australia’s 19.7 kilometer, open-ocean Rottnest Channel Swim, has to qualify. The race had 173 solo entrants in 2011, up from 100 in 2001.

While the rest of us may wonder what it takes to run 26 miles or ride 100, ultra-athletes don’t stop with such paltry challenges. The Ironman triathlon, which features a 2.4 mile swim, 112 mile bike ride, and 26 mile run, once seemed intense, the far end of endurance.

No longer. The ultra-bikathons include Wisconsin’s Dairyland Dare, which maxes out at 180 miles of hills.

And from there, things get worse. Much worse. The Tour de France bike race is one of three “grand tours” that normally exceed 2,000 miles in length. There’s the Furnace Creek 508, which bikes non-stop across 508 miles of Death Valley and the Mojave Desert.

And there’s the Race Across America, an annual, coast-to-coast sufferfest where sleep is optional and minimized, and where the bikers sometimes use duct tape or bungee cords to hold their heads up.

France has a triple-Ironman, and Africa has the Marathon des Sables, a gritty, six-day, 155-mile jog ‘n slog through the Sahara Desert.

Once a year, you can swim around Manhattan. It’s only 28 miles, and we hear raw sewage has stopped spewing into the Hudson River…

So we got to wondering. How (and why?) do these athletes attempt the near-impossible? Are the barriers physical — or mental? What are the rewards – and what are the risks of attempting such outlandish performance?

Why – the motivation question

Let’s start with the hardest question. Why in the world would anyone attempt these distances without being paid for it? “There are extremists in all activities,” says Ronnie Carda, a marathoner who heads the physical education activity program at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “These are very committed individuals. Everyone looks at it as challenge, but most have a real love for it. I had a good friend who used to do ultra-endurance runs, absolutely loved it. But I assume there are people who get obsessed, and I have talked to some who have tried double Ironmans [swim 4.8. miles, bike 224 and run 52] and said one was enough.”

“Certain people, personalities, have to keep proving things to themselves,” says Bob Mazzeo, an associate professor of kinesiology and applied physiology at the University of Colorado, who studies high-altitude athletes.

“People ask, why am I doing this, and I say why do people climb Mt. Everest or do any other tough athletic endeavor?” says Charles Olson, who rode the Furnace Creek 508 last year under the nickname Brooklyn Beast. “It’s to see if you can. I was doing the Ironman, but it wasn’t enough. I’ve always been interested to see how far I could push things, including myself. As a child, I had slot cars and model trains, would see how fast they would go until they fell off the tracks or the engines would burn out.”

Finally, there’s the age factor. Ultra sports are made for older folks, says David Tanner, 61, who has completed Ironmans, the Race Across America (RAAM) and other ultra rides, swims and runs. “I have been around ultras in a lot of different sports, and most competitors weren’t superfast when they were 20. This is an opportunity for people who have perseverance and a good mental attitude to do well in a sport where they weren’t maybe fast enough when they were younger. In an ultra-marathon, sometimes the older you are, the wiser you are, and wisdom is more important than a high VO₂ max or muscle mass.”

VO₂ max measures the amount of oxygen a person can take in; higher levels allow greater athletic performance.

Tanner, a research associate at the Indiana University Human Performance Lab, added one more reason to push the limits. “Everything in your life can be going down the tubes, but you can enter an ultra, forget your problems for a day or two, finish dead last, and still feel good about yourself. It all comes down to self-satisfaction and personal achievement.”

Evolution ‘r us

This outburst of ultra-athleticism may amount to a return to our evolutionary roots, says Joel Stager, in the department of kinesiology at Indiana University. “There is a lot of evidence that humans may be some of the best endurance athletes on the planet, that we evolved to out-endure most animals.”

This excellence shows up in the most basic measurement of metabolic capacity, the volume of oxygen that can be delivered to the muscles per unit time. “Humans have a high value for VO₂ max per kilogram of body weight,” Stager says. “We have the ability to out-metabolize, and the ability to run long distances at a relatively modest pace, so if you put those together, we can out-endure most other species.”

What must training accomplish?

Training for an endurance sport has both emotional and physical goals, and while each event has its particular needs, the focus is on high-endurance, slow-contracting muscles.

Physically, training for an ultra-endurance event should:

Tanner says one of the biggest improvements in endurance athletics concerns nutrition. “Most of us used to make do with homemade brews, whatever you could get in real food. Today, so many companies engineer food that is specifically designed for endurance. You do need protein during a long event, people did not think that before. We have products that are more easily digestible, so you can get close to matching your caloric intake to your output.”

Not just a body game

Sources differed on whether ultra-endurance sports are tougher on the mind or the body, but there is no question that a multi-day race can tax the willpower. Having swum 10 miles or run 50 – do you have what it takes to swim another 10 or run another 50 to reach the finish line?

Training eases the inevitable confrontation with the pain and suffering of a long event, says Olson. “There are tough times in training. Last summer, I would be training 18 hours a day, would leave at 4:45 a.m., and on such a long day, it’s a struggle to find places to eat and drink.”

Olson, who trains in all weather, says “Through the training, you are learning how to deal with adversity.”

Mind control also helps during a race, Olson adds. “When you start getting negative, you have to be cognizant of that, typically you are getting hungry or thirsty, or your mind is playing tricks on you to get you to stop. I eat, change my cadence, or take a five-minute break; do what I need to do to get my mind back in synch. I tell myself I don’t want to let my children down, try to set an example, show that you can do anything you put your mind to.”

How to train

If the goals of training are clear, there’s no clear agreement on what it takes to reach them. Just as carbo loading in preparation for a long race faded 30 years ago, training hours are also on the wane, says Tanner. “Some people thrive on a massive amount of training, but most ultras are not doing the mileage we were 20 years ago. For [the 1989] RAAM, I was training 600 miles a week. I think most people now do not do that much, they substitute quality, hills, intervals, time trials, indoor efforts. There is whole lot more science to training.”

The nature of the training depends on the goal. “There is a huge difference between the people who are competing for the trophy versus the people who are out there for the challenge of going the distance,” says Carda of Wisconsin. “I can’t tell you the number of people that do an Ironman and don’t have a whole lot of intention of running much in the marathon.” Instead, many people many walk a large section of the marathon, which concludes the event. “It’s more about going the distance.”

And those differences affect the training, Carda adds. “If I’m going to compete, there has to be an intensity element. If your goal is strictly a finish, to meet the challenge of the distance, [you will use a different training routine]. It really depends on what your goals are.”

But even a moderate training schedule for, say, an Ironman or a 100-mile foot race will be intense – and time-consuming. Many ultras “are very good time managers,” says Carda. “One gentleman I know who does the Ironman annually found a way to train on an hour a night during the week, and went for long ride on the weekend.” Another would start a 100-mile bike ride at 5 a.m. Saturday, then met his wife and kids at a park. “They would have lunch and he’d be finished for the day. He found a way to put his family into it.”

Running risks

Even in sports that require an extraordinary physical effort, it’s possible to overdo it, says Mazzeo, who focuses on high-altitude athletic performance. “At Pikes Peak, in August, they have a half-marathon, starting at 8,000 feet, up to the summit at 14,000 feet. The next day, there’s a full marathon, up and down, and there are people who run both of them. That is crazy.”

The result of too much exertion, day after day, is called staleness or over-training syndrome, and the symptoms include lowered performance, sleep disturbances, unusual muscle soreness and a feeling of heaviness, even depression. These symptoms are “pretty common here in Colorado, with many triathletes training twice a day for six or seven days a week,” says Mazzeo. “Full-blown over-training syndrome can take a year for recovery, it’s quite significant.”

Ultra-endurance sports can hurt. Bikers can suffer neck seizures and genital numbness, or crash. Runners injure feet, joints and soft tissue.

And there is some evidence linking regular, long-term exertion with atrial fibrillation, a sometimes permanent heart-rhythm abnormality. “Endurance sport practice increases between 2 and 10 times the probability of suffering atrial fibrillation, after adjusting for other risk factors,” according to a 2008 study.¹ This surprising rate of atrial fibrillation may be due to genetics, changes in heart structure or inflammation.

And benefits

And what are the pay-offs of such exertion? We’ve all seen research showing manifold benefits of regular physical activity, and we have to suspect that many apply to ultra-athletes. “When we look at people who have maintained a highly active lifestyle for decades, we don’t find a lot of downsides,” says Indiana’s Stager. “They have lower blood pressure, lower heart rate, less body fat, and muscle mass, better cardiopulmonary performance, more heart capacity, and more elasticity of the arteries.”

High-level exercise helps the brain’s ability to think and make decisions. According to a 2010 ³ review of exercise in older adults, “A relatively high level of physical activity was related to better cognitive function and reduced risk of developing dementia; however, there were mixed results of the effects of exercise interventions on cognitive function indices.”

Stager says that in an ongoing study, the cerebellum, a part of the brain that is involved in voluntary motion, “appears to have a greater mass, more cells and more connectivity. As we age, we start having balance and gait problems that lead to falls and injury. What if we found that one hour of exercise a day would offset as many as 20 years of aging, which is what we appear to be finding?”

“There are some pretty surprising” results, Stager says. “The message for years was that the brain wasn’t involved in exercise, but that does not seem to be the case.”

Stager recognizes that these benefits are not affecting the majority of the population, which is growing more sedentary and obese. “What’s happening is that in term of fitness is that the haves have more, the have-nots have less.”

And while these benefits are not exclusive to ultra-endurance athletes, the rise of these long-distance events does seem to represent the extreme of a significant shift toward higher intensity. Marathon runs, to take one gauge of popularity, are surging: In 2011, more than 100,000 people applied for the New York marathon, and almost 27,000 ran the Boston marathon. And the 160-mile Race Across Indiana had about a dozen participants when it started 25 years ago; 1,250 finished the 2011.

Is it about togetherness?

Another factor that explains the explosion of ultra-endurance sports is marketing, Carda says. Ultras, Carda adds, are “just the next phase. In the ’60s, people started running, there was a fitness craze. There were marathons — not everybody got involved – but suddenly every city had a marathon.” In a beneficial spiral, cities have realized that ultra events – from the marathon up, can attract dollars. “There have always been bikers and runners, and the triathlon has been around for a long time, but the marketing end of things has caught up. “The Ironman is one of those events that has cachet, it’s the in thing to do.”

One more thought. Most people cannot relate to the idea of completing a marathon, let alone an ultra event, but the utterly ridiculous nature of these challenges brings the participants closer. “There is an ultra family, it doesn’t seem to matter what sport,” says Tanner. “There is competition between individuals, but the real competition is you against the distance, against the course. If you finish, then you win, in your own mind. You enjoy the people you are with, make a lot of friends, and when you go back to work on Monday, you have the satisfaction that you were able to push your limit, do something you thought maybe you could not do.”

That’s pretty much what we heard from Olson, who’s heading back to the Furnace Creek this fall. “Anybody who is going an ultra distance, even the real racers, will look to help you along in your journey. They will offer advice because they want you to finish.”

– David J. Tenenbaum

To be honest, we first thought this report might be a joke: Could anybody, with a straight face, test whether treating sleep apnea could improve a golf score? Then we linked up with New Jersey golfer Marc Benton, who pays for his greens habit by working as a pulmonary physician, and we got religion.

Benton reported this week on his study of 12 golfers to a meeting of the American College of Chest Physicians in San Diego.

We must digress. In sleep apnea, the airway temporarily closes, causing partial awakenings that drain sleep of its restorative function. Among many other effects, apnea raises the blood pressure and causes drowsiness, car accidents, and difficulties with memory, thinking and decisions.

Apnea strikes an estimated 3 to 5 percent of Americans and is more common among the old and the obese. Most people are unaware of the condition, although their bed partners may notice the repeated starts and stops of breathing.

Apnea is common among snorers, but it is defined by those brief breaks in breathing, not by noisy breathing or snoring.

Air pressure positively helps!

Sleep apnea can often be treated by wearing a mask that conveys pressurized air into the airway, but getting patients to use these “positive airway pressure” devices can be difficult, says Benton. As a doctor, “It’s always important to try to find anything and everything you can do to enhance compliance, because without compliance, you are not going to get a successful outcome.”

 

A continuous positive airway pressure machine (CPAP) can keep the airway open and reduce or eliminate sleep apnea.

Photo: Pixan

Because the proven, long-term benefits of treating apnea are not always an effective motivator, Benton may concentrate on selling more tangible benefits. “Not everybody is going to respond to the idea that their quality of life will be better, that they will have less heart attacks and strokes, that they will live longer,” he says. For bus and truck drivers, “we know for sure that treating apnea will result in a much lower frequency of accidents,” so safety becomes the sales pitch.

Down with the bogey

After Benton, who says he’s an avid golfer, treated some “golf buddies” for apnea, they mentioned that their game was improving, so he studied another 12 golfers with apnea.

You may think golf is all about looking as suave as the Tiger, but Benton says it’s a game of decisions. “In any situation, you can do A or B or C. You can hit a particular kind of shot, use a particular club, can take a high- or low-risk option.”

Golfers are a prime group for apnea, Benton says. “Golf, to a very large degree, is played by middle aged males, 25 to 75 years old, and 10 percent to 15 percent of them could have clinically significant apnea.” Most people in the study had severe apnea, with at least 10 partial or complete cessations of breathing per hour. One of them had 75 an hour.

Each stoppage causes a tiny awakening that eviscerates the quality of sleep.

To gauge a golfer’s ability, Benton used the handicap, which measures how many strokes above par that person usually plays. Few sports have such a neutral measure of prowess, Benton points out, and that made golf a good vehicle for studying the impact of apnea treatment on sports that require a lot of thinking.

A handy handicap

Benton found a significant reduction in handicap after 20 rounds, meaning the subject’s games had improved. Interestingly, the best golfers, who tended to be the oldest, had the biggest reduction, suggesting that they were the most limited by the effects of apnea.

Treatment requires motivation because the masks are not always pleasant at first, Benton says. Patients may object to dryness, to swallowing forced air, or feel embarrassed by the need to sleep while tethered to a noisy machine. But once they start to get a good night’s sleep, the picture changes, Benton adds. “For a lot of people, it’s a true lifesaver. They say, ‘I don’t know how I lived without this.’”

Among the golfers, Benton says, “Not only did they see an improvement in alertness and quality of life, they saw an improvement in their ability to play. They were astoundingly compliant with therapy. The level of enthusiasm was very powerful.”

So next time you see a golf-cart full of doctors putting away on a sunny Wednesday afternoon, consider this: Maybe they are actually planning a new research project…

Okay, it’s just a thought.

David J. Tenenbaum