POSTED 11 DEC 2000
View 2001 update
View 1999 update
Right: This giant iceberg broke off the Ross Sea Ice Shelf in March, 2000. The Delaware-size ice cube doesn't prove that global warming is occurring, but it sure does not disprove it.
Courtesy NASA.
On Nov. 25, a major pow-wow in the Netherlands crashed and burned, without issuing guidelines to carry out the Kyoto Protocols. That 1997 agreement committed three dozen industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5 percent below their 1990 levels, by 2012.
The collapse did nothing to stem the flood tide of bad news about global warming:
- Arctic permafrost is melting.
- Ditto for ice shelves, ice caps and glaciers.
- Sea level continues rising -- perhaps as much as 18 inches over the next century, threatening massive flooding and beach erosion.
- The latest forecasts indicate that temperatures may rise by three to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.
- The fastest warming in recorded history could cause chaos to farmers and wildlife alike.
The hubbub, of course, concerns the increasing levels of greenhouse gases, principally carbon dioxide, which reflect heat back to Earth and raise the planetary thermometer. While the human role in this warm-up is even better documented now than it was three years ago, the need to write detailed rules--- combined with continued reliance on fossil fuels and differing philosophies over controlling carbon dioxide -- spawned significant obstacles at the negotiations.
The United States, for example, wanted to allow credit for projects that "store" carbon in trees and farmland. European delegates favored absolute reductions and contended that United States, as the largest single source of greenhouse gases, should do so.
The breakdown was seen either as a triumph of principle or a sacrifice of the good on the altar of the perfect. "We're better off with no deal than a bad deal," a Greenpeace campaigner told the New York Times.
The same paper heard an opposite opinion from the head of Environmental Defense. "Instead of working to protect the planet, the Europeans stumbled badly when presented with what was a crucial opportunity," said Fred Krupp.
The conferees may try again in a few months.
BibliographyGlobal Change Electronic Edition.
Odd Culprits in Collapse of Climate Talks, Andrew Revkin, The New York Times, 28 Nov. 2000, P. 1, Science section.
Even in Frigid North, Hints of Warmer Temperatures, James Brook, The New York Times, 10 Oct., 2000.
©2001, University of Wisconsin, Board of Regents.