POSTED 20 NOV 2001

The ocean level rose 20 to 30 centimeters during the 20th century, and could rise one meter in the 21st, says Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute. The rise is due to thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of glaciers.

Both are consequences of global warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Brown warned in a press release that within 50 years Tuvalu could be under water. Already, salinity is harming groundwater and crops, and larger storms, another expected result of global warming, are gnawing away at the island's beaches. "Tuvalu is the first country where people are trying to evacuate because of rising seas, but it almost certainly will not be the last," Brown wrote.

The Maldives, in the Indian Ocean, with a population of 310,000, faces a similar threat, Brown added. Most of the nations islands are barely two meters above sea level.

Bigger stakes
Other areas threatened by rising sea levels have much higher populations include China's densely populated coastline. Bangladesh, where most of the 134 million people live near sea level, already suffers catastrophic storms, which rising seas will only intensify, Brown predicted.

New Orleans and much of the Netherlands are already below sea level.

The sinking of island and coastal regions may focus attention on the issue of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas.

The United States is currently the only industrial nation not participating in the Kyoto Protocol, a four year-old international process to restrict greenhouse gases. This month, delegates in Morocco agreed on a set of principles to move the Protocol toward implementation.

However scientists warn that the proposed controls on greenhouse gases do not go far enough, that they may slow but not stop global warming. Sea levels are likely to continue rising even under the Kyoto Protocol.

Global Warming Impasse Is Broken, Andrew Revkin, The New York Times, Nov. 11, 2001, p. 1A 8. Small Island Developing States Network